Australian dollar (AUD) dented by downbeat data
The Australian dollar (AUD) initially fell yesterday, after the latest Ai Group industry index printed below forecasts for June and May’s score was revised lower.
However, AUD managed to regain ground against some of its peers in the evening, although a mixed market mood limited the currency’s recovery.
Looking ahead, Australia’s latest trade figures could influence AUD today. Could an expanding trade surplus lend the ‘Aussie’ support?
New Zealand dollar (NZD) buoyed by RBNZ bets
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) climbed yesterday after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should raise interest rates soon.
Global risk dynamics could drive NZD exchange rates today, potentially leading to choppy movement if sentiment shifts.
Pound (GBP) firms despite lukewarm BoE remarks
The pound (GBP) enjoyed modest support yesterday, although GBP’s upside seemed more linked to movements in other currencies than Sterling’s own strength.
Investors also largely brushed off comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey. While the BoE chief maintained a cautious stance on rate hikes, he also said that cuts were ‘off
the table’ and hinted that the rise in energy prices earlier in the year could have a delayed impact on inflation.
Sterling could struggle for a clear direction during today’s session, with UK economic data thin on the ground.
Euro (EUR) falls following cooler inflation figures
The euro (EUR) fell during yesterday’s European session as the Eurozone’s latest consumer price index dampened European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike bets.
The preliminary CPI figures for June showed headline inflation cooling more than forecast, from 3.2% to 2.8%, while core inflation unexpectedly eased from 2.6% to 2.4%.
The Eurozone’s latest jobs data could lend EUR modest support later today, if it shows that unemployment in the bloc remained low in May.
US dollar (USD) pulls back as data disappoints
The safe-haven US dollar (USD) initially edged higher yesterday amid a cautious market mood, before weaker-than-expected data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh drove USD into retreat.
The latest ADP employment change figure pointed to a steeper-than-expected slowdown in jobs growth in June, while the ISM manufacturing PMI revealed an unexpected softening in factory activity. Meanwhile, Warsh said that inflation risks in the US have eased.
For USD investors, today’s spotlight falls on the latest non-farm payrolls report. An expected slowdown in employment growth could mute the American dollar, with any surprise results likely driving sharper movement.
Canadian dollar (CAD) mixed as crude prices fall
The commodity-linked Canadian dollar (CAD) traded in a wide range yesterday, with CAD avoiding losses against its weaker peers despite a fresh decline in oil prices.
Today, Canada’s latest manufacturing PMI could influence the ‘loonie’. An improvement in factory activity in June could help CAD tick higher, although oil price movements may complicate the picture.
Data releases
11:30 AUD Balance of Trade (May)
19:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (May)
22:30 USD Non Farm Payrolls (Jun)
23:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI (Jun)