Australian dollar (AUD) rebounds despite RBA minutes
The Australian dollar (AUD) initially softened yesterday, touching multi-month lows against some peers, as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest meeting minutes dampened bets on an interest rate hike in August.
However, the risk-sensitive ‘Aussie’ managed to rally strongly in the evening thanks to an improving market mood.
An expected modest improvement in Australia’s latest Ai industry index may not provide AUD with much of a boost today. The ‘Aussie’ may instead trade on market risk dynamics.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthens as mood improves
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) marched higher yesterday, with the ‘kiwi’ initially attracting some dip-buying before a shift to risk-on trade helped it extend these gains.
With New Zealand data still in short supply, market risk appetite could drive NZD, potentially leaving the ‘kiwi’ exposed to volatility.
Pound (GBP) uncertain amid mixed GDP figures
The pound (GBP) traded erratically yesterday as mixed GDP figures left the currency lacking a clear direction.
While GDP in the first quarter of 2026 was confirmed at 0.6% – placing the UK at the top of the G7 for that period – growth was revised lower at the end of 2025. Additionally, April’s GDP data showed a 0.1% contraction.
GBP investors will be keeping an eye on Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey today as he delivers a speech. If he maintains his cautious tone, Sterling could stumble.
Euro (EUR) choppy following German data
The euro (EUR) also fluctuated yesterday, with mixed German data and movement in the US dollar (USD) infusing EUR with volatility.
While German retail sales and unemployment data surprised to the upside, the country’s latest consumer price index revealed that inflation cooled by 0.3 percentage points in June.
The Eurozone’s latest CPI is the focus for EUR investors today. If inflation cooled as expected in June, the common currency could stumble.
US dollar (USD) retreats amid weak consumer confidence
The US dollar initially rose yesterday as a cautious mood supported the safe-haven currency.
USD then started trending lower as the mood improved in the evening, with the ‘greenback’ then plunging after the latest CB consumer confidence index showed that household morale was weaker than expected in June.
Today, two US data releases and a speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could lift USD. The releases are expected to show that jobs growth and manufacturing activity remained strong in June, while Warsh may hint at the need for tighter policy.
Canadian dollar (CAD) unsure despite upbeat GDP
The Canadian dollar (CAD) traded in a mixed capacity yesterday, as stronger-than-forecast GDP figures helped to offset CAD’s positive correlation with the sliding US dollar.
Looking forward, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem is due to speak today. If he signals that the bank may consider raising interest rates, CAD could firm.
Data releases
09:00 AUD Ai Group Industry Index (Jun)
19:00 EUR Inflation Rate (Jun)
10:15 USD ADP Employment Change (Jun)
23:00 CAD BoC Gov Macklem Speech
23:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech
23:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech
23:00 USD Fed Chair Warsh Speech
00:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)