Australian Dollar (AUD) Wavers amid Lack of Significant Data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) tumbled against several peers at the beginning of the week, as a lack of significant Australian data exposed the currency to losses.
Risk-off trading weighed upon the ‘Aussie’ as fighting continued in Ukraine – commodity prices continued to rise, however, provided some upside.
Australia’s business confidence release could affect trading today – if sentiment has fallen, as expected, AUD may succumb to further pressure.
Pound (GBP) Buoyed by Show of Diplomacy
The Pound (GBP) was able to make minor gains through Monday’s session, as investors hoped for progress in a third round of ‘peace talks’ between Russia and Ukraine.
Risk-off headwinds persisted, however, as Ukraine and its Western allies criticised designated humanitarian corridors leading to Russia and Belarus; one British official remarked that providing evacuation into the arms of the country that is currently destroying yours is ‘nonsense’.
Today’s retail sales monitor is expected to reveal an increase in British sales, year-on-year: such an outcome could led Sterling support.
Euro (EUR) Supported by German Data
The Euro (EUR) received support yesterday in the form of upbeat factory orders and retail sales data from Germany. Factory orders increased to 1.8%, while sales rose by 2% in January.
Also lifting EUR sentiment was speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may soon raise interest rates: the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged this week, but may give hawkish forward guidance on Thursday.
Today’s data is expected to confirm that Euro area GDP rose by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2021, potentially boosting single currency trading sentiment.
US Dollar (USD) Climbs on Risk Sentiment and Treasury bond Yields
The US Dollar (USD) rose against its peers on Monday as an overall risk-off market mood drew support to safe-haven assets.
Also bolstering the ‘Greenback’ were rising US Treasury bond yields. The USD Index jumped to the highest level since May 2020 as economists forecasted further gains in the near term.
Looking ahead, today’s trade balance is expected to reveal a growing deficit, from $-80.7bn last month to $-87.1bn in January. If the data prints as expected, USD could experience some downside.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Wavers as Commodity Prices Rise Further
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) firmed at the beginning of the week as oil prices continued to climb on supply concerns.
Into today, Canada’s trade balance may apply upside – the data is expected to show a surplus following last month’s C$-0.14bn deficit.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Sinks on Low Risk Appetite
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakened yesterday as a lack of data exposed the currency to losses; AUD weakness also pressured the ‘Kiwi’.
Data Releases
Mar 8th 08:30 AUD RBA Bullock Speech N/A
Mar 8th 10:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb) 5.5%
Mar 8th 10:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Feb) 1
Mar 8th 17:00 EUR German Industrial Production (Jan) 0.5%
Mar 8th 20:00 EUR GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 0.3%
Mar 8th 23:30 CAD Balance of Trade (Jan) C$1.6bn
Mar 8th 23:30 USD Balance of Trade (Jan) $-87.1b