Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened by peace hopes
The Australian dollar (AUD) ticked higher through the start of this week as reports that Iran had approached the US with a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz cheered markets.
The upside in AUD was reinforced by Chinese data, as Australia’s largest trading partner reported another strong rise in industrial profits through March.
Looking ahead, if global risk sentiment continues to improve through today’s session, the ‘Aussie’ will likely maintain a positive trajectory.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) firms in risk-positive trade
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) also firmed on Monday as the risk-sensitive currency benefitted from the improving market mood.
The ‘kiwi’ will remain closely tied to market risk dynamics today, potentially extending its gains if the mood remains upbeat.
Pound (GBP) muted on worrying retail data
The pound (GBP) was left subdued yesterday after data suggested that UK retail conditions ‘darkened’ this month.
The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) latest distributive trades index fell to a record low in April, with the outlook for retailers growing increasingly bleak amid the challenges posed by rising cost pressures.
UK economic data is in short supply today, which may leave Sterling directionless, particularly ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision later in the week.
Euro (EUR) buoyed by USD weakness
The euro (EUR) traded with modest support on Monday, buoyed by its strong negative correlation with the US dollar (USD) as the latter came under pressure.
However, the upside in the single currency remained rather modest in the face of data showing that German consumer confidence plunged to a three-year low going into May.
Turning to today’s session, the absence of any notable Eurozone economic indicators is likely to see movement in the euro be determined by wider market trends.
US dollar (USD) slips as safe-haven demand falters
The US dollar got off to a soft start this week as fresh hopes for a negotiated end to the conflict in the Middle East curbed demand for safe-haven assets.
At the same time, the expected confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve also weighed on the ‘greenback’ as it contributed to the positive market mood.
Looking ahead, any movement in the US dollar may be limited today, with USD investors likely to grow increasingly reluctant to alter their positions ahead of the Fed’s rate decision on Thursday morning.
Canadian dollar (CAD) firms as oil prices climb
The Canadian dollar (CAD) outperformed most of its peers on Monday as global oil prices continued to rise, despite the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz being reopened.
Movement in the ‘loonie’ will no doubt remain linked to oil today, potentially paving the way for further gains if prices continue to climb.