Australian dollar (AUD) dented by ceasefire uncertainty
Trade in the Australian dollar (AUD) was mixed on Thursday, as concerns over the US-Iran ceasefire caused market sentiment to fluctuate.
Doubts over the durability of the ceasefire surfaced through the session as the Strait of Hormuz remained mostly closed, and Tehran accused Israel of violating the ceasefire by striking Lebanon.
Expect the Australian dollar to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments through today’s session, with AUD demand likely to falter if we see the ceasefire in the Middle East remain under strain.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) bolstered by RBNZ comments
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) edged higher yesterday, as it drew support from remarks by Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman in which she expressed her confidence that the New Zealand economy will grow in 2026, despite the current global headwinds.
Coming up, New Zealand’s latest manufacturing PMI may weigh on the ‘kiwi’ this morning if it reports a slowdown in factory sector activity last month.
Pound (GBP) flat amid rise in UK bond yields
The pound (GBP) was mostly rangebound yesterday, as uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire sparked a fresh uptick in UK gilt yields.
While yields remained well below the highs struck in late March, the rise was enough to raise concerns over the cost to the UK government if it needs to step in to provide more energy support later in the year.
UK economic data is in short supply today, likely leaving movement in the pound to be dictated by wider market trends.
Euro (EUR) gains capped by uneven German data
The euro (EUR) was buoyed on Thursday, drawing support from its negative correlation with the US dollar (USD).
However, these gains proved modest, following mixed German data, which reported a rebound in exports but a surprise contraction in industrial production.
EUR investors will look to a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President for fresh impetus today. If he strikes a hawkish tone, the euro may end the week on a positive note.
US dollar (USD) dented by GDP revision
The US dollar trended broadly lower yesterday, undermined by finalised GDP figures that revised US economic growth down to just 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025.
However, the downside in USD remained limited, with concerns over the ‘fragile’ US-Iran ceasefire leading many investors to retain their positions in the safe-haven currency.
Turning to today’s session, the focus may turn to the latest US consumer price index, with a sharp rise in inflation last month potentially lifting the US dollar if it sparks a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
Canadian dollar (CAD) buoyed by rebounding oil prices
The Canadian dollar (CAD) ticked higher on Thursday, bolstered by an uptick in oil prices resulting from renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Canada’s latest labour figures will be in the spotlight for CAD investors today, with the ‘loonie’ likely to face pressure if unemployment continued to tick higher in March.
Data Releases
08:30 NZD Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
21:00 EUR ECB Guindos Speech
22:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
22:30 USD Inflation Rate (Mar)