Australian dollar (AUD) soars in risk-on trade
The Australian dollar (AUD) got off to a roaring start this week, bolstered by a strong uplift in market risk appetite.
Sentiment improved as Chinese economic data beat expectations, and investors were cautiously optimistic regarding proposals for a coalition of nations to provide naval support for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Coming up, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to announce an interest rate hike today. If some hawkish forward guidance accompanies the hike, the ‘Aussie’ is likely to extend these gains.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) rallies as sentiment improves
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) also jumped on Monday in response to the positive shift in risk sentiment.
NZD data is in short supply today, but the ‘kiwi’ may still firm if investors view the RBA rate hike as increasing the odds of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) following suit.
Pound (GBP) slips amid growth concerns
The pound (GBP) trended broadly lower through yesterday’s session amid lingering concerns about the UK’s economic trajectory in the wake of Friday’s lacklustre GDP release.
Further sapping Sterling sentiment were forecasts from Goldman Sachs predicting the Bank of England (BoE) will still deliver two interest rate cuts in 2026.
In the absence of any notable UK economic releases, the pound may be left to trade without strong directional bias today.
Euro (EUR) underpinned by USD weakness
The euro (EUR) firmed on Monday, drawing much of its support from its strong negative correlation with the US dollar (USD).
Helping to reinforce the single currency’s gains was a pullback in energy prices through Monday’s session.
The release of Germany’s latest ZEW economic sentiment index may trigger some weakness in the euro today, as morale is expected to have deteriorated sharply this month amid conflict in the Middle East.
US dollar (USD) retreats as safe-haven demand wanes
The US dollar stumbled out of the gate this week, with demand for the safe-haven currency being trimmed by an uptick in market risk appetite.
This was then reinforced by data showing US industrial production slowed sharply in February.
Looking ahead, movement in the US dollar may be limited today, as USD investors may be reluctant to alter their positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Canadian dollar (CAD) dented by dip in oil prices
The Canadian dollar (CAD) slipped on Monday, pressured by a softening of oil prices and a weaker-than-expected domestic inflation print.
The commodity-linked ‘loonie’ may remain on the defensive today if we see oil prices drop back below $100 per barrel.
Data releases
13:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
20:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Mar)