Australian dollar (AUD) bolstered by hawkish RBA bets
The Australian dollar (AUD) opened this week on positive footing, as the currency continued to benefit from a hawkish repricing of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate bets.
These gains were further reinforced by the cautious optimism that prevailed through Monday’s session.
Today sees the publication Australia’s latest consumer and business confidence figures. If sentiment continues to weaken, the ‘Aussie’ may be forced to relinquish some ground today.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) underpinned by risk-positive mood
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) also firmed on Monday in response to positive risk flows.
Movement in the ‘kiwi’ is likely to remain tied to market risk dynamics today, potentially extending NZD upside potential if the mood remains upbeat.
Pound (GBP) falters amid UK political tensions
The pound (GBP) stumbled yesterday, as ongoing UK political uncertainty sapped appetite for the currency.
GBP investors were rattled by fresh questions over the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his grip over the Labour Party, following the resignation of two of his most senior aides in less than 24 hours.
In the absence of any notable GBP data, Sterling may remain vulnerable to further losses if pressure on Starmer continues to mount.
Euro (EUR) bolstered by USD weakness
The euro (EUR) rallied on Monday as its inverse trading relationship with the US dollar (USD) underpinned demand for the single currency.
EUR sentiment was also supported by the Eurozone’s latest Sentix investor confidence figures, as February’s index reported morale climbed to a seven-month high.
EUR data is in short supply today, which will likely leave movement in the euro to be dictated by wider FX trends.
US dollar (USD) pressured by JPY demand and labour concerns
The US dollar stumbled at the start of the week as an upswing in the Japanese Yen (JPY) stifled USD demand.
Adding to the pressure on the ‘greenback’ were fresh concerns about the strength of the US labour market ahead of Wednesday’s key non-farm payroll report.
Later today, the US will publish its latest retail sales data. Signs of resilient consumer demand may help the US dollar to claw back some of Monday’s losses.
Canadian dollar (CAD) buoyed by rising oil prices
The commodity-linked Canadian dollar (CAD) traded with modest support on Monday, courtesy of an uptick in oil prices.
If this oil rally persists, the ‘loonie’ may be able to eke out further gains through Tuesday’s session.
Data Releases
09:30 AUD Consumer Confidence (Feb)
10:30 AUD Business Confidence (Jan)
23:30 USD Retail Sales (Dec)