Australian dollar (AUD) rocked by China tariff concerns
The Australian dollar (AUD) initially retreated on Thursday, as its status as a proxy for China saw the currency get caught up by concerns over how US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs will impact the Chinese economy.
However, the ‘Aussie’ was able to mount a convincing recovery through the European trading session amid the plunge in the US dollar (USD).
Turning to today’s session, it seems safe to assume that the market schism caused by Trump’s tariffs will continue to influence AUD exchange rates.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) fluctuates amid global trade uncertainty
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) moved largely in tandem with its antipodean counterpart yesterday, with the ‘kiwi’ shaking off its initial losses to rally overnight.
In the absence of any notable domestic data, expect NZD exchange rates to continue to be driven by market risk dynamics today.
Pound (GBP) undermined by weaker-than-expected services PMI
The pound (GBP) retreated through yesterday’s European trading session, after the UK’s latest services PMI fell short of expectations.
March’s finalised figures reported a far more modest expansion in the vital services sector than the preliminary figures had suggested, with analysts warning the lower reading was indicative of the UK economy having stalled in the first quarter.
UK economic data is in short supply today, likely leaving movement in the pound to be driven by wider market trends.
Euro (EUR) underpinned by USD weakness
The euro (EUR) strengthened against the majority of its peers on Thursday, as it benefitted from its negative correlation with the US dollar.
The upside in the single currency was also supported by the latest Eurozone PMIs, which were revised higher in March’s finalised figures.
Germany will publish its latest factory orders release today. If order growth rebounded in February, it could help the euro to build on its gains.
US dollar (USD) tumbles amid Trump tariff fallout
The US dollar nosedived yesterday, with the currency plunging to its worst levels since October, amid fears Trump’s sweeping tariffs will tip the US into a recession.
The selloff was steep enough for Deutsche Bank to warn of a potential ‘dollar confidence crisis’ as Trump’s tariffs are seen as also undermining US policy credibility.
Looking ahead, the USD selling bias may remain firmly in place today as the latest US non-farm payroll figures may reinforce recession fears if they report the US labour market cooled last month.
Canadian dollar (CAD) pressured by plummeting oil prices
The Canadian dollar (CAD) retreated on Thursday as the appeal of the commodity-linked currency was undermined by a sharp drop in oil prices amid fears that a global recession will hurt energy demand.
Coming up, Canada will publish its latest jobs report later today. If unemployment rose as forecast last month, the ‘loonie’ may extend its losses.
Data Releases
16:00 EUR German Factory Orders (Feb)
22:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
22:30 USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Mar)