Australian dollar (AUD) slumps amid trade war risks
The Australian dollar (AUD) suffered a sharp drop at the start of this week amid a shunning of risk-sensitive assets.
Investors sought to minimise their exposure amid growing fears that US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda will spark a global trade war.
Coming up, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver its latest interest rate decision later this afternoon. If the bank leaves rates on hold and signals it is in no rush to ease its monetary policy, the ‘Aussie’ may be able to claw back some of yesterday’s losses.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) plummets in souring trade
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) also got caught up in the selloff on Monday, leading the ‘kiwi’ to weaken by around 1% against its peers.
In the absence of any domestic data, it’s likely the prevailing risk-off mood will leave NZD exchange rates under pressure today.
Pound (GBP) rangebound in absence of data
The pound (GBP) traded sideways during yesterday’s session amid a lull in UK economic data.
GBP investors were also reluctant to make any aggressive bets as they wait to see if the UK is able to secure a last-minute reprieve from Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
With notable UK data in short supply, it’s likely the pound will continue to be driven by wider market trends today.
Euro (EUR) subdued as German inflation slows
The euro (EUR) struggled to attract support on Monday, after preliminary data showed that German inflation cooled last month.
The slowing of inflation stifled demand for the single currency as it stoked expectations the European Central Bank (ECB) might deliver another interest rate cut later this month.
This cooling of inflation is expected to be reflected in figures for the Eurozone as a whole today, likely compounding ECB rate cut bets and placing more pressure on the euro.
US dollar (USD) bolstered by safe-haven demand
The US dollar (USD) trended broadly higher at the start of this week amid a clear bias for safe-haven assets.
This followed remarks from US President Donald Trump, claiming the impending reciprocal tariffs will be imposed on ‘all countries’.
Coming up, the US will publish its latest ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTs jobs opening figures in the upcoming trading session. Expect to see the US dollar’s recent gains tested if either release points to a slowing US economy.
Canadian dollar (CAD) weakens amid political uncertainty
The Canadian dollar (CAD) faltered at the start of this week as election jitters saw investors shy away from the ‘loonie’.
Looking ahead, if oil prices continue to appreciate, it may pave the way for the Canadian dollar to bounce back during today’s session.
Data releases
10:30 AUD Retail Sales (Feb)
12:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
19:00 EUR Inflation Rate (Mar)
00:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
00:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)