Australian dollar (AUD) slides in downbeat trade
The Australian dollar (AUD) suffered its fourth consecutive session of losses on Friday as skittish investors shied away from the currency.
This risk aversion was driven by escalating global economic and trade uncertainty, as well as concerns over persistent deflationary risks in China.
This morning sees the release of Australia’s latest PMIs. March’s preliminary figures are expected to report a modest uptick in private sector activity, which may help underpin the ‘Aussie’.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) losses tempered by positive trade figures
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) was also pressured by risk-off flows at the end of last week, although these losses were tempered by surprisingly upbeat domestic trade figures.
In the absence of any notable NZD economic releases, movement in the ‘kiwi’ is likely to remain tied to market risk dynamics today. Expect the New Zealand dollar to extend its losses if risk sentiment continues to decline.
Pound (GBP) undermined by UK borrowing figures
The pound (GBP) was subdued at the end of last week after data showed that UK public sector borrowing was higher than forecast in February.
Analysts see the latest rise as placing more pressure on UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to cut spending or even raise taxes in her Spring Statement later in the week.
The UK will also publish its latest PMI figures today. March’s data is expected to report a modest acceleration in growth in the services sector. Will this be enough to revive Sterling sentiment?
Euro (EUR) sidelined by USD strength
The euro (EUR) traded sideways on Friday as it continued to be pressured by its negative correlation with the US dollar (USD).
This offset the optimism surrounding Germany’s ambitious new spending plans, after passing through the country’s upper house of parliament.
Turning to today’s session, the euro looks poised to fall if the Eurozone’s latest PMIs report private sector growth stalled this month.
US dollar (USD) bolstered by market risk aversion
The US dollar closed last week’s session on a positive note as the cautious market mood saw investors favour the safe-haven currency.
Capping these gains, however, were lingering fears that President Donald Trump’s trade policies could tip the US into a recession.
Coming up, while not as influential as the ISM releases, the latest US S&P PMIs could stoke recession fears and apply notable pressure on the ‘greenback’ if they report private sector growth continued to cool this month.
Canadian dollar (CAD) subdued as retail sales slump
The Canadian dollar (CAD) was muted on Friday, after Canada’s latest retail sales figures reported a larger-than-expected contraction in sales growth at the start of the year.
Canadian data is in short supply at the start of this week, likely leaving movement in the ‘loonie’ to be driven by oil price dynamics.
Data releases
08:00 AUD Composite PMI (Mar)
19:00 EUR Composite PMI (Mar)
19:30 GBP Composite PMI (Mar)
23:45 USD Composite PMI (Mar)