Australian dollar (AUD) rises amid pared-back RBA rate cut bets
After a sluggish start, the Australian dollar (AUD) began to climb amid speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may not cut interest rates this year.
Amid robust employment and sticky inflation, investors bet that the RBA may have room to postpone cutting rates until 2025.
Turning to today’s session, the latest consumer and business confidence readings may bring volatility this morning. While sentiment amongst households is forecast to have edged higher in April, businesses are expected to have grown more pessimistic.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) supported by cheery trade
The risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar (NZD) gained ground against safer peers yesterday, amid a buoyant market mood.
Markets seemed somewhat reassured by news that Israel was withdrawing troops from South Gaza and rumours that ceasefire negotiations in Cairo were making headway.
During today’s session NZD could see volatile trade as investors analyse the latest business confidence reading for 2024’s first quarter.
Pound (GBP) rudderless amid light data calendar
The pound (GBP) began the week listless, as impactful domestic data releases remained hard to come by.
Furthermore, speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may pursue an interest rate cut in June further clipped Sterling.
With impactful data remaining scarce, the focus may shift to the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) latest retail sales monitor. Could signs of improving consumer spending lift the pound today?
Euro (EUR) restricted by downbeat German trade data
Yesterday, weaker-than-forecast German trade data capped the euro’s (EUR) appeal.
However, while exports in the Eurozone’s largest economy dropped by a worrying 2%, EUR’s negative correlation with the US dollar (USD) kept the single currency afloat.
The euro could begin to soften today, as investors look ahead to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision later this week.
US dollar (USD) pressured by upbeat trade
Cautiously upbeat trade pressured the safe-haven US dollar yesterday, prompting it to drop against riskier peers.
Furthermore, a lack of domestic data releases sapped sentiment towards the ‘greenback’, as investors looked elsewhere.
Risk appetite is likely to drive the ‘greenback’ again today amid a lack of US data. However, a hawkish speech from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari could strengthen USD.
Canadian dollar (CAD) stung by falling oil prices
The crude-linked Canadian dollar (CAD) struggled during yesterday’s trade, as oil prices began to retreat from recent highs.
Oil prices are likely to continuing driving the ‘loonie’ over today’s session. If prices continue to weaken, CAD may slip.
Data releases
April 9th 09:00 USD Fed Kashkari Speech
April 9th 09:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar) 1.8%
April 9th 10:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (Apr) 0.5%
April 9th 10:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Apr) -3