Australian dollar (AUD) undermined by slowing retail sales
On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) weakened against most peers as the latest retail sales data printed below expectations.
Sales in February increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, marking a clear slowdown in consumer spending. This served to counterbalance any gains the ‘Aussie’ could have made from a bullish market impulse.
This morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is due to publish its latest meeting minutes. If these indicate discussions of an interest rate cut, AUD could drop.
New Zealand dollar (NZD) struggles as consumer confidence falls
During last Thursday’s trade, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) slipped following a notable drop in both business and consumer confidence.
ANZ found that household and business morale both deteriorated far more than forecast in March. With the New Zealand economic outlook darkening, investors shunned the ‘Kiwi’.
Turning to today, NZD could be unable to find its footing due to a lack of domestic macroeconomic data releases.
Pound (GBP) supported by risk-on trade
Last Thursday, the pound (GBP) managed to rise against most major peers as the market mood improved over the day’s trade.
However, confirmation that the UK entered a recession in the fourth quarter of 2023 served to limit Sterling’s upward momentum.
Due to a light data calendar, the pound may struggle to attract support from investors today, which may prompt directionless trade.
Euro (EUR) wavers amid mixed German data
Mixed German data prevented the euro (EUR) from gathering pace during last Thursday’s session.
Initially, a sharp slump in German retail sales in February prompted the common currency to soften. However, these losses were reversed amid news that the German unemployment rate for March held at 5.9%.
Germany’s inflation rate for March is due to print tonight and is forecast to show a cooldown. This could weaken EUR by leading to increased European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut bets.
US dollar (USD) wavers despite forecast-beating data
The safe-haven US dollar (USD) struggled to capitalise on stronger-than-forecast US GDP and jobless claims data last Thursday, as the market mood improved.
These mixed factors saw USD trade in a wide range against its peers.
On Friday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, was published. Signs of stubborn inflationary pressures boosted the US dollar by undermining Fed rate cut bets.
Overnight tonight, the latest US JOLTs job openings data for February is due to print. If job openings decreased as forecast, the ‘greenback’ may stumble.
Canadian dollar (CAD) boosted by better-than-forecast economic growth
Canadian GDP for February printed above forecasts on Thursday, lifting the Canadian dollar (CAD) against most peers.
Oil prices could be the predominant driver of movement for the oil-linked ‘loonie’ today. If prices rise, CAD could benefit in turn.
Data releases
April 2nd 10:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
April 2nd 22:00 EUR DE Inflation Rate (Mar) 2.3%
April 3rd 00:00 US JOLTs Job Openings (Feb) 8.81m