Australian Dollar Trims Gains as Risk-Off Trade Undermines AUD

Australian Dollar (AUD) Loses Momentum amid Souring Market Mood

At the beginning of Wednesday’s session, the Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied following a hawkish speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock.

However, the market mood darkened over the course of the European session, reversing AUD’s gains against some peers.

Australia’s unemployment rate for September is due to print this morning, and it could strengthen the ‘Aussie’ if it holds as forecast.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Undermined by Minimal Data

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came under pressure yesterday, as a light data calendar left the risk-sensitive currency vulnerable.

Risk appetite waned across markets over the course of yesterday’s session, bringing headwinds for the ‘Kiwi’.

NZD could see muted trade today, due to an ongoing lack of macroeconomic releases.

Pound (GBP) Uninspired by Hotter-than-Forecast Inflation

Wednesday saw the Pound (GBP) find only fleeting success following the UK’s consumer price index for September.

While headline and core inflation came in slightly above forecasts, many analysts believe the CPI was not strong enough to prompt another interest rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE).

Owing to a light data calendar, continued analysis of yesterday’s inflation data may drive Sterling today. If BoE rate hike bets remain static, GBP could stay level.

Euro (EUR) Clipped as Lagarde Emphasises Cautious Approach

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivered a moderate speech yesterday, which tempered the Euro (EUR).

Lagarde called for patience as rate hikes and supply shocks work their way through markets. In response, investors pared back bets on additional tightening from the bank, thereby denting the common currency.

Due to data releases being in short supply today, the common currency may struggle for direction.

US Dollar (USD) Underpinned by Safe-Haven Flows

The safe-haven US Dollar (USD) climbed yesterday as the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalated, diminishing risk appetite.

A rise in US Treasury yields also boosted USD, with markets speculating that rising oil prices could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again.

Tonight’s initial jobless claims release could be the main driver of movement for the ‘Greenback’. Claims are expected to have ticked upward in the week ending 14 October, which may weaken USD.

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Boosted by Rising Oil Prices

Oil prices rose yesterday amid flaring tensions in the Middle East, strengthening the crude-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).

Tonight, Canada’s latest PPI data is due to print. Economists forecast a cooldown from 1.3% to 0.3% in September, which could weigh on CAD exchange rates.

Data Releases

Oct 19th 10:30     AUD     Unemployment Rate (Sep)     3.7%

Oct 19th 14:30     AUD     RBA Annual Report 2023

Oct 19th 22:30     CAD     PPI (Sep)     0.3%

Oct 19th 22:30     USD     Initial Jobless Claims (14/Oct)     212,000


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