Australian Dollar (AUD) Climbs as Analysts Forecast Growth
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded in a wide range on Thursday amid fluctuating market risk appetite.
This saw the ‘Aussie’ rally through the first half of the session before falling back overnight, with the downturn in AUD exchange rates reinforced by a drop in commodity prices.
Today, manufacturing data is on the agenda. The Ai Group’s index looks to dip, while the finalised S&P PMI is expected to creep slightly higher with mixed data potentially limiting gains for the ‘Aussie’.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Firms despite Weak Confidence Data
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) seesawed yesterday as uneven trading sentiment rocked the currency.
The ‘Kiwi’ was able to shrug off June’s ANZ business confidence report, which printed at -62.6 rather than -59 as expected; this marked the 12th straight month of negative readings.
NZD is likely to trade on risk sentiment today. If manufacturing improved in China in June, the New Zealand Dollar could enjoy additional tailwinds.
Pound (GBP) Rises with No Clear Catalyst
The Pound (GBP) trended up in Thursday’s European session, despite headwinds relating to the UK’s cost of living.
While June’s finalised GDP reading confirmed the UK economy expanded by 0.8% in Q1, data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) revealed that UK households have suffered the longest squeeze on disposable incomes since records began.
Today, consumer credit figures are expected to show a £1.3bn increase in borrowing in May, demonstrating the pressure households are facing to make ends meet. If the data prints as expected, GBP could fall.
Euro (EUR) Slumps on Disappointing German Data
The Euro (EUR) weakened yesterday, coming under pressure due to the single currency’s negative correlation with the US Dollar.
This offset some positive EUR data releases, which reported a stronger-than-expected rebound in German retail sales growth and another drop in Eurozone unemployment.
Euro area inflation is expected to have risen to 8.4% in June. Potentially boosting the Euro as it places more pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue raising interest rates.
US Dollar (USD) Dented by PCE Inflation Data
The US Dollar (USD) firmed on Thursday, underpinned by a risk-off mood which prevailed through the European trading session.
However these gains were capped overnight following the release of the core PCE price index as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation fell to a six-month low.
Tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing PMI could cap ‘Greenback’ tailwinds if manufacturing activity decreased as expected in June.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Drops as GDP Contracts
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) tumbled against its peers yesterday, retreating in response to Canada’s latest GDP release as preliminary figures reported a contraction of growth in May.
Data Releases
Jul 1st 08:30 AUD Ai Group Manufacturing Index (Jun) 52
Jul 1st 09:00 AUD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) 55.8
Jul 1st 17:55 EUR German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) 52
Jul 1st 18:00 EUR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) 52
Jul 1st 18:30 GBP S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) 53.4
Jul 1st 18:30 GBP BoE Consumer Credit (May) £1.3bn
Jul 1st 19:00 EUR Inflation Rate Flash (Jun) 8.4%
Jul 1st 23:45 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) 52.4
Jul 2nd 00:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 54.9