Australian Dollar (AUD) Climbs on Higher Energy Prices
The Australian Dollar (AUD) initially fell on Thursday in response to lacklustre Chinese PMI releases
However, the ‘Aussie’ was able to rebound through the European trading session, thanks to an uptick in commodity prices.
Today’s manufacturing data is likely to influence Australian Dollar exchange rates: if both the S&P PMI and Ai manufacturing index increase as expected, AUD could enjoy tailwinds.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Subdued on Lack of Significant Data
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakened against its peers yesterday as a lack of significant data exposed the currency to losses.
Strength in the Australian Dollar failed to support the ‘Kiwi’, as risk-off headwinds sapped demand for perceived-riskier currencies. Ongoing conflict in Ukraine contributed towards waning risk appetite.
A further lack of data could dent NZD trading sentiment again today, although the New Zealand Dollar may find support on market optimism.
Pound (GBP) Trades Sideways as Bearish Sentiment Caps GDP Gains
The Pound (GBP) ticked up against several rivals on Thursday morning, as UK GDP lent upside.
A decrease in the UK’s current account deficit also strengthened GBP sentiment, but tailwinds were countered by a cautious market mood: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cited threats of nuclear warfare from Russia, saying ‘No [part of the world] is safe from radioactive contamination.’
Sterling may weaken further tomorrow, as the UK’s finalised S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to reveal a decrease in activity in March.
Euro (EUR) Tumbles on Russian Gas Threat
The Euro (EUR) fell yesterday amidst concerns Russian President Vladimir Putin threat to cut off gas supplies to ‘unfriendly countries’ unless they agree to pay in Roubles could disrupt European energy supplies.
Also subduing the Euro was upside in the US Dollar, which has a strong negative trading correlation with the single currency.
Looking ahead, Euro area inflation might buoy EUR today – the CPI is expected to hit 6.6% on an annualised basis.
US Dollar (USD) Faces Mixed Stimuli – PCE Misses Expectations
The US Dollar (USD) traded in a mixed range on Thursday as risk-off headwinds lent safe-haven support while weaker-than-expected data applied downside.
Market sentiment remained low amidst international scepticism regarding Russia’s promise to withdraw troops from around Kyiv – yet USD was unable to take full advantage of bearish trading as the PCE price index missed expectations of a rise to 6.5%.
Today, the ‘Greenback’ may be bolstered by a fall in unemployment as well as an increase in manufacturing activity.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Range-bound as GDP Prints as Expected
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) traded mixed yesterday following the release of January’s GDP data, which revealed marginal economic expansion. Meanwhile, a slump in crude oil prices capped gains for the ‘Loonie’.
Today, Canada’s S&P manufacturing PMI could exert CAD downside, as manufacturing activity is expected to have fallen slightly in March.
Data Releases
Apr 1st 17:55 EUR German S&P Global/BME Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 57.6
Apr 1st 18:00 EUR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 57
Apr 1st 18:30 GBP S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 55.5
Apr 1st 19:00 EUR Inflation Rate Flash (Mar) 6.6%
Apr 1st 22:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Mar) 3.7%
Apr 1st 22:30 USD Non-farm Payrolls (Mar) 490K
Apr 1st 23:30 CAD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 56
Apr 1st 23:45 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 58.5
Apr 2nd 00:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 59