Australian Dollar
The biggest influencer of currency movement on Friday came from China. A packed data docket contained a number of mostly positive figures for the Asian nation, although Gross Domestic Product slowed as forecast to 6.7%. The above-forecast growth in loans and investment, combined with the uptick in industrial production and retail sales, helped to ease fears of global weakness.
The Australian Dollar put on a mixed performance, however, with economists warning that the debt-fuelled recovery in the Chinese economy was unsustainable. On a positive note, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released new figures revealing that Australia’s natural assets, such as minerals and farmland, have doubled in value over the last ten years to $6 trillion.
Tomorrow, the minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting will be released, followed by a speech from Governor Glenn Stevens in New York.
Sterling
The ‘Aussie’ lost out against Pound Sterling on Friday, despite the EU referendum campaigns swinging into action. Investors were not particularly perturbed by the rhetoric of the ‘Leave’ campaign, who claimed that quitting the European Union would free up more money for the NHS.
Traders were perhaps more interested in the latest forecast from the London School of Economics, which warned that in the worst case scenario, a ‘Brexit’ could cost every British household -£2,000 per year, a total loss of -£175 billion per annum.
House price data is due out later today, but it is not until Wednesday that significant UK data will be released. UK unemployment figures and Average Weekly Earnings numbers tend to trigger GBP movement. If the latter prints positively, expectations of a November rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE) could increase dramatically.
Euro
Hopes that issues could soon be resolved between Greece’s creditors helped the Euro advance on Friday. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had clashed with Eurozone creditors over the level of GDP surplus Greece would be required to maintain after 2018 as a condition for receiving the latest bailout.
However, comments from leading Eurozone officials suggested that progress was being made and that a deal was within reach, lessening fears that a defaulting Greece would have to leave the Eurozone.
Tomorrow sees the release of the latest German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey for April.
US Dollar
The positive data from China cheered investors slightly, warming sentiment towards the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve had suggested in recent times that they would be more focussed on global developments than on domestic data, so the positive Chinese data was interpreted as a sign that a US rate hike could be on the table in the near future.
Things weren’t so rosy on the domestic front, as the influential University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index dropped to 89.7 rather than rising from 91 to 92 as predicted. Industrial production figures for March showed a continued -0.6% decline, while Capacity Utilization also dropped.
This week is devoid of high-impact US data releases, with Thursday’s unemployment figures likely to be the most influential publication.
Canadian Dollar
A sharp decline in manufacturing shipments weakened the Canadian Dollar on Friday. On the month, shipments declined -3.3%, much further than the drop of -1.5% expected after January’s 2.3% rise. Existing home sales performed well, rising from 0.8% to 1.5%, but a drop in Brent Crude saw the ‘Loonie’ plummeting. Prices for the international benchmark declined over -2%.
Friday will be the most important day for Canadian Dollar movement, with the Consumer Price Index figures due for release.
New Zealand Dollar
The Australian Dollar slumped against its Oceanic cousin on Friday, with the New Zealand Dollar buoyed by the positive news from China’s earlier economic releases. There was no domestic data to note.
New Zealand’s most important data is due out this morning, with investors hoping the Consumer Price Index for Q1 will show an uptick in inflation from the previous month’s 0.1%.
Data Released
April 18th 08.45 NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (1Q) 0.4%
April 19th 11.30 AUD RBA April Meeting Minutes
April 19th 19.00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR) 8.0
April 19th 23.30 AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speech in New York
April 20th 18.30 GBP Jobless Claims Change (MAR) -10k
April 20th 18.30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (FEB) 2.2%
April 21st 22.30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 16)
April 21st 22.30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 9)
April 22nd 22.30 CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
April 22nd 22.30 CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (MAR)