AUD/USD
After reaching a high of 0.7216 against the USD on Wednesday, the AUDUSD retreated back into the 0.71’s through-out Thursday before getting a lift again overnight following the release of the minutes for the Federal Reserve from September’s meeting. The tone was cautious, the Fed were concerned around the slowdown in China on other economies that could in turn depress US exports. This news helped pushed the AUD to a 3 week high vs the USD and reached a high of 0.7272.
The AUD/USD exchange rate was trading at 0.7252 at 09:00 this morning.
AUD/GBP
The BoE met overnight and as expected left rates on hold at 0.50%. The GBP rate reached a low of $2.1221 yesterday before rebounding to reach an intraday high of $2.1381. That fightback was short lived as the AUD gained again against the GBP overnight, with the rate dropping back to a low of $2.1104 this morning after the BoE worries around the slower than expected inflation levels. The AUD is still performing well after the RBA left rates on hold again this week. The markets feel that the comments from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens point to rates staying on hold for quite a while which has helped to continue the AUD recent rally against the GBP.
AUD/EUR
Late on Thursday has seen German exports report their worst results in 6 ½ years. Exports are still up 5% for the year, however fell 5.2% month-on-month in August, and the worst monthly performance since January 2009 during the GFC. The German economy has seen the benefits from the emergence of the Chinese middle class and huge demand for quality cars, however with the recent slowdown in China has also affected the German economy and their exports. After hitting a high of 0.6418, the AUD dropped back to 0.6344 before rallying again overnight and gaining back those loses and hitting a new high of 0.6444.
The Day Ahead
Today sees a round the world trip on data announcements to close out the week. We start in NZ, with Retail Spending expected to remain steady at 0.4% for September. Then across the Tasman for a local release with Home Loans & Investment Lending results for August. A large increase from 0.3% in July to 4.7% in August should hopefully give the AUD a boost to start the day.
The evening then takes us to the UK, Canada then finishing with the USA. The UK sees the Trade Balance figures for August expected to come in positive, which will hope to give the GBP a lift against the AUD after a few weeks of downward movements.
Canada will then release their Employment figures. Good news if you’re moving there as the Unemployment rate is forecast to drop from 7% to 6.9%.
The US rounds off the week with their Wholesale Trade Sales and Wholesale Inventory results. These figures will give an idea of retail sales and spending with wholesale companies acting as intermediaries between manufacturers and retailers. A positive result for wholesalers, means retailers are buying, and in turn shows that consumers are spending, which would be a positive result for the US economy.