Australian Dollar (AUD) Continues to Dwindle

The Australian Dollar (AUD) had been relatively stable during this week’s trading, with only minor movement back and forth being experienced. Overnight however, the AUD lost between half and a full percent against the majors and minors after appearing to find some degree of stability earlier in the week.

Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for August was released. The Minutes indicated that the domestic economy has ‘been more positive in recent months and accommodative monetary policy remained accommodative’.

The Minutes also mentioned that inflation has been consistent with the target during the forecast period, suggesting that the governing body will continue to hold interest rates in the coming months if the current economic conditions remain unchanged. The AUD remained steady following on from the release before falling by approximately half a percent against a basket of currencies.

Today, the Australian economy will announce the Westpac Leading Index figure for July which is the last piece of significant domestic economic data to be released this week. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to move in response to the release of high tier international economic data releases over the next few days.

Australian Dollar to Pound Sterling (AUD/GBP) Exchange Rate Falls After UK CPI Rises

Overnight the UK economy reported on inflation levels in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). The annualised CPI was expected to remain at 0.0%, with Core inflation expected to rise slightly from 0.8% to 0.9%. The result was better than expected, with the annualised CPI rising to 0.1% and Core CPI rising to 1.2%. This caused the AUD-GBP exchange rate to fall heavily, losing over a full percent following the announcement.

UK Retail Sales will be released tomorrow evening and is expected to reveal further improved growth to this economic indicator. A figure of 4.3% is expected from the previous print of 4.2%, demonstrating the UK economies continued improvement and could continue to weigh down on the AUD-GBP exchange rate.

The AUD/GBP exchange rate is currently trading at 0.4683 at 0900 AEST.

Australian Dollar to Canadian Dollar (AUD/CAD) Exchange Rate Trading Within a Range

The AUD/CAD exchange rate has been quite range-bound over the past five months, oscillating between 0.9408 and 0.9747. The race between the ‘Aussie’ (AUD) and ‘Loonie’ (CAD) as to which one will devalue the fastest has been going on most of year. Overnight the AUD lost three quarter of a percent against the CAD.

Canadian inflation will be released Friday evening, with expectations that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will increase from 1.0% to 1.3%. This will bring inflation back into the Bank of Canada’s target band of 1.0-3.0% and should eliminate the possibility of any further interest rate cuts for this year. This may cause some late-week strength for the ‘Loonie’ (CAD) and push the AUD/CAD exchange rate back towards the lower end of the five month trading range.

Although the annualised Canadian CPI is expected to rise, the monthly Core CPI is forecast to remain stagnant at 0.0% and Retail Sales is expected to fall from the previous month growth figure of 1.0% to 0.2%. This may slightly counter any positive movement that the AUD/CAD exchange rate experiences as a result of the annualised Canadian CPI increasing.

The AUD/CAD exchange rate is currently trading 0.9575 at 0900 AEST.

Terry Finn