This week will be on the quiet side in regards to the macro-data expected out of Australia. This week’s movement in the AUD/USD will be more than likely caused by data out of the USA. At face value, it seems that the US is in for a cracker week of domestic data releases which is likely to push the AUD lower against the USD.
Today we are expecting two medium tiered data releases out of Australia and China. The first will be Australia’s House Price Index; the figure is expected to be showing further expansion. This makes sense when we reflect on the current prices in the major cities in Australia. This should provide some assistance to the AUD.
The more important figure out today will be China’s manufacturing PMI release. Earlier this year the figure fell into contractionary levels. The release is expected to remain in contraction; however, it is expected to budge closer to the expansionary levels. China’s figures tend to always miss their target expectations so the release should cause some midday volatility, today.
Out of the USA, there are two major releases due out this week. They are Core Durable Goods and the Final Gross Domestic Product figure.
The Durable goods figure is expected to show a better figure than the previous months. Analysts are expecting the figure to be released at 0.6% from the previous -0.2%. This figure should assist the USD/AUD as it shows that businesses are committing to long term projects and investments; meaning long term sentiment in the USA economy is improving.
The Final GDP figure is also set to be improved from the previous release; last quarter’s GDP figure, in the USA showed -0.7%, this month -0.2%. Although it is still in contraction; the market should take any improvement as good news.