Late Friday night the US released their employment figures for the month of January. The figure was expected to be released at 236,000 jobs; however the actual figure was released at 257,000. The market reacted within seconds of the announcement pushing the AUD lower against the USD.
Strangely, the unemployment rate came in worse than expected. The market consensus for the figure expected to stay consistent with last month’s 5.6, however, the figure came in at 5.7%. The negative effect of the unemployment figure was more than offset by the improvement on the Jobs Created figure.
Looking out to this week, today we have Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, speaking in Sydney. He is tipped to make public hints on future monetary policy. Given the Interest Rate cut last week, many investors are waiting to hear further hints on future interest rate movements.
Tuesday out of Australia, we are expecting NAB’s release of their Business confidence data. This indexed figure is expected to stay in the expansion zone; as it has since August 2013. Nevertheless, it will provide an insight to Australia’s business sentiment.
Also tomorrow we will see the Inflation figure released out of China; this is not expected to give Australia any assistance. The figure is expected to be 1.1%, lower than the last release, which was 1.5%. An inflation rate at these levels is considered very low for an OECD country; if we did see 1.1%, it would be considered to be a very big fall for a year on year figure. This may well push the AUD lower against the USD.
The last major release out of Australia will be the employment figures. They are expected to also hurt the AUD against most majors, including the USD. The Employment change in Australia is expected to be negative and for Australia to lose 4700 jobs; this was from 37,400 gained last month.
The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase also; the figure is expected to be releasde at 6.2% from 6.1% last month. Both of the aforementioned figures, at face value, should end the AUD on a low. Ultimately it will depend on the actual figures and their proximity to the expected figures.