The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced minor positive movements during the Australian trading day session after falling heavily the previous day due to falling Business Confidence. The AUD is likely to be volatile today, following the release of the Australian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change figures at 10:30am AEST.
The Australian Unemployment Rate is currently sitting at 6.2% and the forecast is that the announcement today will indicate an increase to this economic facet, to hit 6.3%. Economists’ are also forecasting a moderate 15K jobs to be added to the Australian economy for the month of November.
The employment release is set to cause a large degree of volatility, with the direction that the AUD moves resting upon the result of the announcement. If more jobs are created than the expectation and the Unemployment Rate remains at 6.2% we should see some strong positive movement. The more likely scenario though is that the result will be in-line with the forecast, continuing the recent trend of a falling Australian Dollar.
Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) Exchange Rate Bounces Back
The ‘Aussie’ (AUD) reached a new 4.5 year low against the ‘Greenback’ (USD) earlier in the week, trading in the mid 0.82’s. The AUD/USD Exchange Rate has recovered slightly since the low that was hit on Tuesday, however it still remains vulnerable.
Falling commodity prices coupled with increasing economic data releases out of the US economy have been the cause of the AUD/USD Exchange Rate falling over the past few weeks. If the Australian employment data released today is poor, than we may see a new low hit later today.
Tonight the US will release their Advance Retail Sales for the month of November. The forecast is for a minor improvement to this sector from 0.3% growth to 0.4%. Employment data in the form of Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims will also be released this evening and will influence tonight’s movement of the AUD/USD Exchange Rate.
Australian Dollar to New Zealand Dollar (AUD/NZD) Hits 4 Month Low Following RBNZ Rate Decision
This morning the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released their Rate Decision to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 3.5%, as the forecast suggested. Head of RBNZ, Governor Graeme Wheeler spoke following the Rate Decision and made mention that ‘further increase in the OCR is expected to be required at a later stage’.
This morning’s economic news out of New Zealand, in terms of the high prospect of further Interest Rate rises from the RBNZ, immediately pushed down the AUD/NZD Exchange Rate by over a further percent. The AUD/NZD Exchange Rate has been trending downwards due to a decrease in commodity prices and increased talk of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leaning towards an Interest Rate cut next year.
Once again the Australian employment data to be released today will be pivotal in determining the short term direction of the AUD/NZD Exchange Rate, which is currently trending downward.