The USA Non-Farm Payroll figures were released well above the market expectations and also the previous month’s release. This pushed the USD to new heights against the AUD; and the USD/AUD exchange rate is now at a new four year high.
The AUD/USD exchange rate has been on a distinct downward trend line; this consolidated itself 3-4 weeks ago. The current exchange rate is at 0.83, which is the lowest exchange rate in almost four years. Analysts are expecting the trend to continue until the next support level which is 0.81.
Before close of the market Friday night, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures were released out of the USA. The market was expecting 231,000, upon release, however, the NFP came in at 321,000 jobs added for the month of November.
The AUD/USD instantly lost 70 points in the exchange rate on this considerably better than expected result. The US unemployment remained on 5.8% as the market expected. The US trade balance was slightly worse than expected; coming in at -43.4 billion from -41.3 billion. The market decided that the NFP was the winner of the night; therefore the AUD remained at those new lows.
This week all eyes are on the release of Australia’s Unemployment figures. At face value the release is looking to further weaken the AUD. The market is expecting 15,200 jobs to be created, relative to last month’s 24,100 jobs that were gained, and the actual figure is expected to underperform. Australia’s Unemployment Rate is expected to gain 10 basis points from last month’s figure of 6.2%.
The weekly outlook for the AUD/USD is fairly grim, technical and fundamental levels are against the AUD, which is expected to continue this medium term trend line of weakness.