It appears to be a very quite week for economic releases out of Australia this week, meaning that the value of AUD is likely to move in response to commodity prices and international economic announcements.
On Friday evening, the UK Gross Domestic Product rounded out the high-tier economic releases for last week. The economic expectation was that we would see a reduction from the previous GDP figure of 3.2% to 3.0%. The result was exactly as expected, resulting in little movement experienced between the AUD to GBP exchange rate, which has remained quite range-bound for the past week. With a lack of high tier economic announcements out of both the Australian and UK economies over the coming days, we may see a continuation of the current exchange rate gracing the currency market.
The AUD to NZD exchange rate is edging back towards 2014 highs following the New Zealand economy posting a lower than expected inflation rate and a poor Trade Balance figure in the latter half of last week. The New Zealand annualised CPI figure decreased to 1.0% from a previous reading of 1.6% and imports outweighed exports to the tune of -1350M for the month of September, causing the ‘Kiwi’ to lose close to 2% against the ‘Aussie’. The major releases out of New Zealand this week include Business Confidence on Wednesday and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision on Thursday.
Economic data out this evening that is likely to influence the value of the Euro is associated with business sentiment in the form of German IFO. The US economy will also release their Services and Composite Purchasing Managers Index figures for the month of October. The release of the US Durable Goods Orders tomorrow evening is likely to be more significant in swaying the strength of the Greenback though. The forecast for that the percentage change for Durable Goods Orders for the month of September is 0.3%, which is actually a vast improvement from the previous figure of -18.2%. US Consumer Confidence will also be announced tomorrow evening and the States are targeting a minor improvement to their current economic outlook.
With the exception of the AUD to NZD exchange rate, the ‘Aussie’ has remained around the current exchange rate levels against the majors for the past week, after falling heavily earlier in the month. It will be interesting to see how the Australian Dollar responds this week without the influence of significant domestic data releases.