Yesterday, the Australian market woke to find the AUD weaker after the European and US session finished up their trading day. This trend stayed as anticipation for the NAB Business confidence (NABBC) made investors cautious for the first half of play. For March, the NABBC release showed slightly disappointing results as investors saw February’s strong figure of 7.3 fall to an unexpected 4.1. The AUD reacted negatively initially to this result as in the last six months, business confidence have averaged a figure of 7.0.
Needless to say, the figure was well below ordinary. The recent appreciation of the AUD is said to have an effect on this result. Breaking down the NABBC survey in to industry segments, we found a recovery of the mining industry; however, the figure is still below par. We also found that the manufacturing and construction circumstances improved for March, -7 and -5 respectively. However, wholesale and transportation & utilities fell dramatically last month; this again fell well below yearly averages.
Nevertheless, some good sentiment came from NAB’s second data release. This sentiment was related to their assessment of Business Conditions. These results usually give an indication of short to mid-term business conditions, as the results showed an improved figure of 0.7 from the previous -0.1. The release gave the AUD some lift which followed on till the close of the Australasian market.
Today we look forward to the 10.30am EST release of the Westpac consumer confidence. This release shows consumer sentiment, covering areas such as the fiscal health, house hold, political, and finally economic conditions. February’s results showed that confidence remained negative. On the contrary, this was still an improvement upon December’s results. We may very well see positive results later today, in the main part due to; low interest rates, rising household wealth and an upward trending consumer confidence levels. If this happens we may see the dollar strengthen, yet again.